Russia's battlefield gains in Ukraine have fallen close to nothing this year even as Moscow pours troops into the fight and steps up strikes on energy infrastructure.

The Institute for the Study of War, which tracks front lines with open source footage, puts territory seized by Russian forces in the first 10 months of 2026 at about 117 square kilometres. That compares with more than 5,300 square kilometres in 2025 and about 3,600 in 2024. The daily advance rate has dropped to a fraction of a square kilometre, down from double digit figures in the previous two years.

Ukraine's General Staff estimates Russian personnel killed or seriously wounded from January through October at more than 381,000, with monthly loss figures breaking wartime records through the summer and autumn. Those claims cannot be independently verified, but the reported toll far exceeds estimates of Russia's monthly recruitment capacity. Assessments also show Moscow losing both firmly held and contested ground in September and October after earlier periods of infiltration.

Ukrainian leaders say the stalled advance helps explain a surge in long range strikes on power infrastructure. In the week ending 6 November Russia launched more than 2,300 drones and over 80 missiles, with a peak of 370 drones and 76 missiles on 3 November. Hundreds of thousands of families face blackouts as winter begins.

At the same time Ukraine has resumed near daily hits on Russian refineries, striking eight in seven days. The campaign aims to cut export revenue and disrupt a late October understanding in which Trump invited Russia to sell 1.8 million tonnes of diesel by year end to ease transport prices. Four tankers were reportedly loaded in hope of US linked sales, but shippers and traders have been wary of sanctions law. A US senator warned one operator that only Congress could make such a sale legally solid. The Kremlin has dismissed reports that the cargoes remain unsold.