Senior Republicans are scrambling for a new course after Democrats swept both houses of Congress in this week's midterms, and much of the debate turns on how far the party can step back from President Donald Trump's brand without tearing itself apart.

Vice President JD Vance moved first. Hours after the scale of the defeat became clear, he argued on X that the war with Iran, and the strain of American ties to Israel, had driven former Trump voters to the other side. He told critics who had warned the party that they were right, and urged them to channel that energy into choosing Republicans who share their worldview. Oil markets reacted in kind: Brent crude slipped as traders judged that a weaker White House hand made a fresh round of strikes less likely.

The economic backdrop is harsh. After Tehran closed the Strait of Hormuz early in the conflict, crude surged and has stayed elevated for months, feeding higher fuel and food prices at home. Analysts say any serious 2028 contender will have to show daylight from the most unpopular parts of Trump's record, above all the war. Vance has publicly supported the campaign while privately pressing for an end to it, and last week he wrote to Iranian security chief Mohsen Rezaei proposing talks. Trump, by contrast, has said the war ends when he decides.

Early primary sounding puts Vance well ahead of Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Donald Trump Jr. Texas senator Ted Cruz called the result a blue tsunami and blamed high prices, tariffs and a war that dragged on. Florida governor Ron DeSantis warned that losing Texas as an anchor would leave the party nationally unviable. The field is still open. The hard question is whether anyone can keep the MAGA base while winning back voters who have drifted away.