The scale of Republican losses in the US midterms is spilling directly into Israel's race to form a government, weakening Benjamin Netanyahu's claim that he alone can lock in American support.

Early American post mortems have focused on the war with Iran and on ties to Israel, themes Vice President JD Vance himself highlighted. Opposition figures in Israel argue that Netanyahu's record, including the Gaza war, the Iran conflict and regional strikes, has made Israel a harder sell in US politics. Former prime minister Yair Lapid stressed his own links on Capitol Hill and said US voters were reacting against extreme ministers, settler violence and Netanyahu personally more than against Israel as such.

Avigdor Lieberman went further, suggesting President Donald Trump's election day talk of ending US military aid was the price of an endorsement for Netanyahu, citing an annual figure of 3.8 billion dollars. Security analyst Ahron Bregman warned that if American money stops, Israel's defence burden, already about 7 percent of GDP, will rise and households will feel it.

On the numbers, Netanyahu's right wing bloc has 53 seats, eight short of a majority. Eisenkot's opposition bloc has 48, while Ra'am and the Joint List hold 19 between them and have said they will support Eisenkot for prime minister. Eisenkot and other opposition leaders have rejected a unity deal with Netanyahu, leaving President Isaac Herzog to choose who gets the first mandate.

For many Israelis the fear is simpler: that automatic bipartisan cover in Washington has thinned. How Herzog reads that mood, and whether Eisenkot can turn outside Arab party backing into a workable arrangement, will decide whether the midterm shock becomes a decisive argument against another Netanyahu term.